Official Ocean Prediction Center Forecast Official Weather Prediction Center Forecast
Official NHC/CPHC Forecast Interpolated Ahead 6 hr While derived from official sources of information, they should NOT be considered to be official. These five identifiers represent forecasts issued by NOAA's National Hurricane Center (NHC), Central Pacific Hurricane Center (CPHC), Weather Prediction Center, and Ocean Prediction Center. Please note that all consensus, statistical, and statistical-dynamical guidance is classified as "early" guidance and is often derived from "early" model output. In the lists above, "early" models are those whose designators end in an I (e.g., AVNI, CMCI, etc.). As you might expect, "late" model forecasts thus form the basis for the subsequent "early" model forecasts. The actual 0000 UTC model forecast, arriving after the 0300 UTC forecast must be made, is known as a "late" model forecast. This results in what is known as an interpolated, or "early", model that is available at 0000 UTC for forecasters to use when preparing the 0300 UTC forecast. To alleviate this, model forecasts from the previous cycle, or 1800 UTC in our current example, are shifted forward in time by 6 hr. Ideally, model forecasts from the 0000 UTC cycle would be available to help make the 0300 UTC forecast (for example) however, as modern numerical weather prediction models typically require several hours to complete a given forecast cycle, this is often not possible. These times correspond to 11 pm, 5 am, 11 am, and 5 pm EDT, respectively. However, National Hurricane Center official forecasts are issued at 0300, 0900, 1500, and 2100 UTC. These times correspond to 8 pm, 2 am, 8 am, and 2 pm EDT, respectively. Numerical models are typically run four times per day: 0000, 0600, 1200, and 1800 UTC. The National Hurricane Center and other official tropical cyclone forecast centers make use of two different forms of dynamical model guidance during the forecast process: "early" and "late" models. Click here for the partial source document for this list, or click here for a listing of deprecated identifers (e.g., to help interpret the historical forecasts available from this page). The National Hurricane Center has an excellent website with more details on the formulations for many of the models listed below. Ever wonder which forecast model each of those three or four letter identifiers refers to on the forecast model track and intensity plots? Or what the difference is between various model types? This list, current as of the 2020 hurricane season, has the answers.